Americans Claiming Asylum in Canada Nearly Tripled in 2025, Driven by Trump Policies

The Numbers

Immigration data viewed by the Daily Mail shows that 1,850 Americans filed asylum applications in Canada in 2025 — up from 700 in 2024, the year Donald Trump won his second presidential election. The figure more than doubles the prior year's total and approaches the record 2,535 American asylum claims filed in 2017, during the first year of Trump's first term.

The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB), which adjudicates asylum claims, published separate data showing 245 U.S. citizens sought refugee status in the first half of 2025 alone — already exceeding the 204 who filed claims across all of 2024, according to the Globe and Mail. In 2023, 157 U.S. citizens filed claims with the IRB.

Additionally, there are 858 refugee claims on file that list the United States as the country of alleged persecution, according to IRCC data cited by the Daily Mail, though that figure spans claims dating back to December 2012. At least 634 American asylum cases were referred to the IRB's Refugee Protection Division between January 1 and December 31, 2025. Of those, only 27 had been rejected as of the time of reporting.

Prior to Trump's first term in 2017, the number of Americans seeking asylum in Canada had historically been only a few hundred per year. After his return to office in January 2025, the figure surged again. During Biden's presidency, the number fell sharply — ranging between 300 and 700 per year.

Who Is Filing and Why

Immigration lawyer Ryan Rosenberg, a managing partner at Canadian firm Larlee Rosenberg, told the Daily Mail he has observed a notable shift in the profile of American claimants between Trump's first and second terms. In 2016, inquiries came predominantly from racial minorities. By 2024, they came from a broader base — including, in his words, "a lot of families with children with complex gender identities."

Rosenberg, who launched a service called Trumugees.ca after the 2024 election, described spikes in inquiries following specific policy moments: the start of ICE enforcement raids and Trump's inauguration. "As the US acts on very Trumpian policies, we see Americans react," he told the Daily Mail.

According to El País reporting based on data from Rainbow Railroad — an NGO with offices in Canada and the U.S. that assists LGBTQ+ individuals — 51 percent of U.S. asylum requests the organization received in 2025 came from transgender people: 35 percent from transgender women and 16 percent from transgender men.

Among the executive actions cited in individual claims: Trump's order declaring the U.S. government only recognizes male and female sex, eliminating the X gender marker from federal documents including passports; the ban on transgender personnel serving in the military; the ban on transgender women competing in women's sports; and the dismantling of federal DEI programs. Twenty-seven U.S. states have enacted laws limiting youth access to gender-affirming care, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Hannah Kreager, a transgender woman from Arizona, filed an asylum claim with the IRB in June 2025 on the grounds that she has a well-founded fear of persecution in the United States. Immigration lawyer Yameena Ansari, who represented Kreager, was quoted by the Globe and Mail as saying Trump's return "has created a climate of fear in the U.S. that pushes vulnerable populations – women, minorities, LGBTQ+ folks – to look north for safe haven."

Individual Cases

One widely reported case involves River Berg (formerly Katie Berg), an Illinois resident and veteran family member who crossed the U.S.-Canada border with her family at 3:30 a.m. on March 3, 2025, citing concerns for her transgender and gender-fluid children, aged 14 and 13. The family's claim has reached refugee claimant status but has not yet been heard; Berg was told by Canadian immigration officials that a hearing in Ontario could take up to 42 months, according to a TikTok video she posted. Berg told the Daily Mail this month that she does not regret the move.

In a separate case covered by CBC News, Dan Livers, 51, an Army veteran from Michigan, crossed the Detroit River by kayak in early August 2025, entering Canada illegally before presenting himself to authorities and requesting asylum. Livers told Canadian officials he feared being killed in the United States. He paid $25 for a kayak and navigated the river at night to avoid what he described as "the gauntlet of ICE, sheriff's department, state police." Canada granted Livers temporary status while his refugee claim is pending.

In July 2025, a Federal Court justice halted the deportation of Angel Jenkel, a 24-year-old non-binary multimedia artist from Minnesota engaged to a Canadian citizen. The Globe and Mail reported the ruling criticized Ottawa's Immigration Department for failing to properly consider the situation of LGBTQ Americans since Trump's return to office. Jenkel's lawyer, Adrienne Smith of Smith Immigration Law, described the ruling as precedent-setting.

The Legal Reality: A Very High Bar

Despite the surge in applications, legal experts caution that the likelihood of success for American asylum seekers in Canada is extremely low. James Yousif, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer and former director of policy to Conservative immigration minister Jason Kenney, told the Globe and Mail that refugee protection is not available if the claimant has a "viable internal flight alternative." For an American to succeed, he said, "they would have to show that there is no part of the United States where they could reasonably expect to live in safety. That is a very high bar."

Historical data bears this out. According to the Daily Mail's reporting, outside of wartime, only four American asylum claims have ever been granted in Canada — three involving minors, and one a gay activist who left the country before the process was completed.

Rosenberg acknowledged to the Daily Mail that some Americans may be using the Canadian asylum system strategically — filing claims to enter the backlog and remain in Canada until Trump's term ends before returning home. "I'm sure it's happening," he said.

The Canadian system is under significant strain. As of September 2025, the IRB had a backlog of 280,000 asylum applications from all countries, with a processing capacity of 80,000 claims per year — meaning a minimum three-year wait, a figure expected to grow as claims volumes rise.

Context: The Broader Migration Picture

The surge in American asylum claims represents a narrow but symbolically significant subset of broader U.S. emigration trends. Separate data from the U.S. Census Bureau, cited by Newsweek in analysis published in March 2026, shows that the five U.S. states with the strongest inbound domestic migration are South Carolina, Idaho, Delaware, North Carolina, and Tennessee — all low-to-moderate tax states. New York posted the largest domestic outflow, declining by 119,198 net residents.

The Canada asylum trend is distinct from standard emigration: asylum seekers are making formal legal claims of persecution, not simply relocating. Canadian immigration law requires applicants to demonstrate a well-founded fear of persecution on grounds including race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group — with LGBTQ identity recognized as qualifying under the latter category.

Whether U.S. policy shifts under Trump meet that legal threshold remains, as of this writing, largely untested in Canadian refugee tribunals. The IRB has published no aggregate outcomes data for the current cohort of American claimants.