On the day before the most closely watched jobs report of the year, the U.S. economy deposited three separate data points on the table — and none of them told the same story. Weekly jobless claims fell to 202,000, beating expectations. The trade deficit widened to $57.3 billion, roughly in line with forecasts but still elevated. And separately, Tuesday's JOLTS report had confirmed that the hiring rate in February fell to 3.1 — matching the lowest level recorded since January 2011, touching the same depth seen only once before: April 2020, the deepest month of the COVID pandemic shutdown. Together, they form the pre-game data package heading into Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls release at 8:30 AM ET.
Today's Claims Data: Low Layoffs, Frozen Hiring
New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 28, the Labor Department reported Thursday, according to Reuters. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 212,000 claims for the latest week — the actual print was better than expected.
Claims have moved in a 201,000-230,000 range this year, a pattern that Reuters described as consistent with what economists characterize as a "low-hire, low-fire" labor market. In plain terms: employers are not cutting workers at an elevated rate, but they are also not adding them. The continuing claims figure — representing people still collecting benefits after an initial week — increased by 25,000 to 1.841 million, per Reuters' reporting on the Labor Department release.
Oxford Economics lead U.S. economist Nancy Vanden Houten, quoted directly in Reuters' April 2 report, said: "We expect weaker job growth and a higher unemployment rate for 2026 than we had been forecasting prior to the war. But the war's impact on the labor market will take a bit more time to materialize."
The Reuters report also cited the broader labor market context: private nonfarm payroll growth has averaged just 18,000 jobs per month in the three months through February — a figure that, if sustained, would represent near-stagnant employment growth for one of the largest labor markets in the world.
The JOLTS Report: Hiring Rate at COVID-Era Low
The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, provided the data that the weekly claims number context-sets. Key figures from the official BLS release:
Job openings fell to 6.882 million in February, down from a revised 7.2 million in January, according to the BLS JOLTS summary. The job openings rate stood at 4.2%, per the BLS release. Hires decreased to 4.8 million in February, according to the BLS — roughly 400,000 fewer hires than were recorded in February 2025, per Raw Story's reporting on the data. Quits were 3.0 million, little changed, while layoffs and discharges held at 1.7 million.
The number that Indeed Hiring Lab flagged as most significant: the hires rate declined to 3.1 in February, matching the COVID-era low observed in April 2020. Indeed's analysis, published March 31, noted this was the lowest level since January 2011 — a fifteen-year floor. The decline from 3.4 to 3.1 between January and February was the largest single-month drop since 2016, outside of the pandemic, according to Indeed's reporting. The quits rate stood at 1.9% — the eighth consecutive month at or below 2.0%, a streak that reflects a workforce reluctant to leave jobs voluntarily.
Indeed framed the pre-war JOLTS as "one last clear read on the road behind us," noting that all of this data predates the Iran war's February 28 start. The conflict, by the time Friday's BLS report arrives, will have been underway for 33 days.
The Trade Deficit: $57.3 Billion in February
The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported Thursday that the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion in February, up $2.7 billion from a revised $54.7 billion in January, according to the BEA's official release. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a wider gap of $61.0 billion — February came in better than that consensus, per Reuters.
Exports jumped 4.2% to a record high of $314.8 billion, according to Reuters' reporting on the BEA data. Goods exports soared 5.9% to an all-time high of $206.9 billion — boosted primarily by industrial supplies and materials including monetary gold and natural gas. Imports increased 4.3% to $372.1 billion, driven by capital goods (particularly computers and semiconductors, likely linked to AI data center construction per Reuters), industrial supplies including crude oil, and pharmaceutical preparations.
The goods trade deficit widened 3.0% to $84.6 billion in February. Reuters noted that trade data "continues to be volatile amid shifting policy" — including the Supreme Court's February ruling striking down IEEPA-based tariffs and Trump's subsequent imposition of a global tariff for up to 150 days.
On the Iran war's trade impact, Reuters cited economists' expectation that the conflict — which has restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz affecting goods ranging from energy to fertilizers — will reduce trade volumes going forward. The February data predates those restrictions entirely.
The Stock Market Backdrop: $3.2 Trillion Erased in March
Reuters' Thursday labor market report cited an additional figure that contextualizes why the Friday jobs number carries unusual weight: approximately $3.2 trillion was erased from the U.S. stock market in March, per Reuters' reporting. President Trump on April 1 vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran, sending oil prices surging again, per a separate Reuters report referenced in the labor market piece.
The national average retail gasoline price topped $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years, according to Reuters' April 2 coverage. Higher energy costs and the stock market selloff from the Iran conflict, Reuters reported economists warning, would slow consumer spending, raise costs for business, and "further restrain hiring."
What Friday's Report Is Expected to Show
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its March Employment Situation report on Friday, April 3, at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus among economists polled by Reuters is for nonfarm payrolls to have rebounded by 60,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4%, per Reuters.
February's payrolls dropped by 92,000 jobs — a figure the BLS attributed partly to a healthcare workers strike and harsh weather, per Reuters' original reporting on that release. Friday's report covers the March survey period, which means it captures the first weeks of the Iran war (which began February 28) but not its full economic impact. The strike that suppressed February's number has since been resolved, per Reuters.
The 60,000 consensus estimate would represent a significant recovery from February's -92,000 but would still be well below the level economists consider consistent with healthy labor market growth. The ADP private payroll count for March came in at 62,000, according to the ADP National Employment Report — slightly above the consensus but with trade and transportation shedding 58,000 jobs and manufacturing losing 11,000 more.
Three numbers to watch in Friday's report: the headline payroll change, the unemployment rate, and whether February's -92,000 gets revised. If February is revised further down and March comes in below 30,000, the recession concern moves from analytical to institutional.
The "low-hire, low-fire" market was fragile before the Iran war started. Thirty-three days of $100+ oil, a closed strait, and $3.2 trillion in market losses later, Friday's report is the first real read on what the war is doing to American workers. The data to be released at 8:30 AM will be the last clean signal before the full effect lands.