On March 17, 2026 — the same day Israel killed Ali Larijani, Iran's national security chief — Elbit Systems, Israel's largest defense company, published its full-year 2025 financial results. The numbers were striking: revenues of $7.9 billion (a more than 16% increase, per Calcalist Tech), GAAP net income of $534 million, non-GAAP net income of $598 million, and an order backlog of $28.1 billion — up from $22.6 billion in 2024, according to the company's official PR Newswire release.
Elbit's stock jumped 11% on the day of the results announcement, according to Reuters, accumulating a gain of over 65% so far in 2026. The Jerusalem Post reported the $28 billion order surge was directly driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran. CEO Bezhalel Machlis told reporters the company was working around the clock.
This is the other economy of the Iran war — the one that benefits from conflict continuing rather than ending. While oil prices, airline stocks, and consumer inflation indexes document the costs of war, defense contractor order books and stock prices document who profits from it. The two economies are running simultaneously.
Act 1: Elbit's Numbers
Elbit Systems' official 2025 full-year results, published via PR Newswire on March 17, 2026, show:
- Revenues: $7.9 billion — a more than 16% increase from 2024 (Calcalist Tech)
- GAAP net income: $534 million
- Non-GAAP net income: $598 million
- Order backlog: $28.1 billion — up from $22.6 billion in 2024 (Yahoo Finance)
- 72% of the backlog is attributable to orders outside Israel (Yahoo Finance)
- More than half of the backlog is slated for delivery in 2026 and 2027
The backlog figure is arguably more significant than the revenue number. A $28.1 billion backlog means Elbit has more than three years of revenue already contracted. The Iran war has not just boosted current sales — it has locked in future revenue streams that extend well beyond the conflict's resolution.
Elbit CEO Bezhalel Machlis, quoted by the Jerusalem Post and Yahoo Finance, said the company was "working around the clock to ensure Israel did not run out of ammunition and other military systems, and to supply foreign customers — including Gulf countries." The Gulf country customer base is significant: countries like the UAE, which have been expelling Iranian diplomats and aligning against Tehran, are simultaneously expanding their defense procurement from Israeli contractors.
Machlis also stated, per Calcalist Tech: "The UAE is part of the current war with Iran and represents significant potential for our systems." The CEO of Israel's largest defense company is describing Gulf states at war with Iran as growth markets.
Act 2: US Defense Contractors
The pattern at Elbit is repeated, with variations, across the major US defense contractors. Time magazine published an analysis on March 19, 2026 titled "It Takes Money to Kill Bad Guys," identifying six major US defense contractors set to see significant revenue growth from the Iran war: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon (RTX), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Palantir Technologies, and others.
The stock performance has been mixed since initial war-start surges. MarketWise reported that Northrop Grumman had seen its stock price drop approximately 7.25% from its war-start apex as of late March — a pattern across some defense stocks where initial conflict-surge pricing partially corrected as investors recalibrated timelines. However, MarketWise noted that "many defense stock prices have dipped since their apex on March 2" but remained "significantly above their prewar level."
RTX Corporation (Raytheon's parent) rose approximately 4 to 5%, while Northrop Grumman climbed from roughly $465 to nearly $490, according to one analysis. These figures are from secondary sources and cannot be independently verified against official exchange data in real-time — they are presented with that caveat.
The Iran war's consumption of munitions is the primary driver. Precision-guided munitions — the JDAM kits, the Paveway bombs, the cruise missiles — are Raytheon and Lockheed products. Every air strike consumes inventory that must be replenished. The US military has been conducting sustained air operations against Iran for 25 days. Replenishment orders translate directly into revenue for US defense manufacturers.
Act 3: Congress Members Buying Defense Stocks
Quiver Quantitative, which tracks congressional stock trades against legislative activity, reported on March 23–24 that Congress members are actively buying shares in defense contractors as the Iran war continues. Quiver listed the stocks being purchased: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Boeing (BA), General Dynamics (GD), Raytheon/RTX (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC), L3Harris (LHX), Honeywell (HON), and Palantir (PLTR).
Quiver Quantitative framed this in the context of "a new record-breaking investment in the military looming" as Congress weighs defense appropriations tied to the Iran war. Members of Congress who sit on defense appropriations committees or armed services committees vote on the budgets that fund these companies, and simultaneously hold stock in them. This is legal under current law — the STOCK Act of 2012 prohibits insider trading by Congress members but does not prohibit holding stock in industries they regulate, as long as the trades are not based on material non-public information.
Whether congressional purchases of defense stocks during an active war constitute conflicts of interest is a political and ethical question that has been raised in multiple prior wars. It is documented here as a data point, not an accusation.
Act 4: Historical Context — Defense Stocks and US Wars
The pattern of defense contractor profitability during wartime is not new. During the Gulf War (1990–1991), Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003–2011), and the Afghanistan war (2001–2021), US defense contractors saw sustained revenue growth tied to military procurement. The RAND Corporation and Congressional Budget Office have documented these patterns repeatedly.
What is different about the Iran war's defense economy compared to previous conflicts:
Speed of demand: The Iran war involved sustained high-tempo precision strike operations from day one, consuming munitions at a pace that reportedly concerned Pentagon planners within the first two weeks. Restocking demand is immediate, not delayed by a multi-year buildup.
Regional proliferation: The war has increased defense spending not just for the US and Israel, but for Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) who are simultaneously expelling Iranian diplomats and accelerating their own military procurement from Western and Israeli contractors. Elbit's CEO confirmed Gulf countries as growth markets. This is a broader, multi-country demand surge than a typical bilateral conflict generates.
Ukraine overlap: The Ukraine war, ongoing since 2022, had already stretched Western defense industrial capacity. The Iran war arrived while Raytheon, Northrop, and Lockheed were already running at elevated production rates for Ukraine. The two wars are competing for the same factory capacity — which could constrain how quickly US defense firms can actually fulfill expanded orders, even as their order books grow.
Act 5: The Ceasefire Economy
There is an asymmetry in the incentive structures around any potential ceasefire. A ceasefire ends the immediate munitions consumption that drives short-term defense revenue. However, ceasefire or not, the Iran war has already generated the order backlogs — Elbit's $28.1 billion backlog is locked in regardless of when fighting stops. The question is whether additional orders accumulate.
The broader regional rearmament trend — Gulf states buying more Israeli and US systems, NATO members accelerating procurement after the Ukraine and Iran wars — is largely independent of when this specific conflict ends. The defense industry's Iran war windfall is partly current-consumption, partly a demand-pull that will persist for years regardless of outcome.
This is not an argument for or against the war. It is a description of the financial landscape in which decisions about war and peace are made, and who benefits from each outcome.
The Record
Elbit Systems, Israel's largest defense firm, reported $7.9 billion in 2025 revenue, a $28.1 billion order backlog, and a 65%+ stock gain in 2026, per official results published March 17. CEO Bezhalel Machlis confirmed the company is supplying Gulf states as growth markets alongside Israel. US defense contractors — Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop — are seeing elevated stock prices and demand driven by war-time munitions consumption. Congress members are buying defense stocks during an active war in which those contractors are the primary suppliers.
The Iran war has two simultaneous economies. One is measured in oil prices and inflation. The other is measured in order backlogs and stock gains. Both are real.