Europe's top energy official delivered one of the starkest public warnings yet about the continent's fuel outlook on Friday, telling reporters and the Financial Times that the energy shock unleashed by the Middle East war will not be resolved quickly and that Brussels is actively preparing plans for scenarios that include rationing diesel and jet fuel. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said the situation represents a structural problem that requires a coordinated European response, not merely a short-term price spike that markets can absorb on their own.
The Commissioner's Warning
"This will be a long crisis ... energy prices will be higher for a very long time," Jørgensen told the Financial Times on April 3, 2026. He added that for some more "critical" products, the EU should "expect it to be even worse in the weeks to come." Speaking separately at a press conference after an emergency meeting of EU energy ministers, Jørgensen framed the crisis in terms that went beyond pricing. "What I find extremely important is to state as clearly as I can, that even if that peace is here tomorrow, still we will not go back to normal in a foreseeable future," he said, according to the Associated Press.
The commissioner said the EU was "preparing for the worst scenarios," including rationing critical products such as jet fuel or diesel. He was careful to note the bloc was "not there yet," but described the planning as prudent. "Better to be prepared than to be sorry," he said, according to EnergyConnects, which cited the Financial Times interview.
The Scale of the Price Surge
The numbers behind Jørgensen's warnings are stark. Since the start of the Middle East conflict, oil prices in Europe have surged approximately 60% and gas prices approximately 70%, according to AP News citing Jørgensen directly. The EU's total bill for imported fossil fuels has jumped by 14 billion euros since the war began, the commissioner said at the March 31 energy ministers meeting in Cyprus, as reported by AP.
European natural gas storage tells a particularly bleak story. As of March 31, 2026, storage across the EU stood at just 5.8% of capacity, according to Kpler, a trade intelligence agency cited by Euronews. That figure follows an unusually harsh winter in 2025 and 2026 that drew down reserves to historically low levels. The Dutch TTF benchmark, Europe's key gas price reference, has climbed to approximately 55 euros per megawatt hour as of late March, according to market data reported by Kpler and cited by FinancialContent, with some projections placing the ceiling higher if the crisis deepens through April.
The Reserve Release and Its Limits
The International Energy Agency and its 32 member nations announced on March 11, 2026 what the Los Angeles Times described as "the largest volume of emergency oil reserves in its history": a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles. Twenty of the 27 EU member states contributed to that release, providing a combined 91.7 million barrels, or roughly 20% of the global total, according to Euronews. Germany contributed 19.5 million barrels, France contributed 14.6 million barrels, Spain contributed 11.6 million barrels, and Italy contributed 10 million barrels.
But energy analysts warn that the release provides only temporary cushion. Homayoun Falakshahi, senior energy analyst at Kpler, told Euronews that the reserves released by the IEA are being drawn down at a pace of roughly 2.5 million barrels per day, meaning the current tranche will last approximately 160 days. "The reserves released by the IEA are already being used," Falakshahi said. "So far, they have been used domestically."
EU storage beyond strategic reserves currently holds 270 million barrels of crude oil, roughly enough for three weeks of consumption after refining into finished fuels, according to Kpler data cited by Euronews. The EU consumes approximately 10.5 million barrels of oil per day, led by Germany at 2.3 million barrels, France at 1.6 million barrels, and Italy at 1.3 million barrels per day, according to EU data cited by Euronews.
Jørgensen said on April 3 that he would "not exclude" another release of strategic reserves "if the situation becomes more dire," according to EnergyConnects. Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, expressed a similar view in a podcast recorded April 1 with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, saying he is considering a further coordinated release, according to Euronews.
The 1970s Playbook Returns
Beyond reserves, EU officials are now reaching back to policy tools last deployed during the 1970s oil embargo. Euronews reported that EU countries may consider fuel rationing, remote work mandates, and "car-free Sundays" to curb oil and gas demand across the bloc. The IEA's own 10-point demand reduction plan, which Jørgensen encouraged EU members to consider, includes working from home, reducing highway speed limits, encouraging public transit, and increasing car sharing. The commissioner said the EU is working on a "toolbox" of measures that will be unveiled "quite soon" and will include ways to help member states decouple gas prices from electricity prices, according to AP.
Poland has already moved unilaterally. Secretary of State for Energy Wojciech Wrochna told Euronews that his country introduced a price cap and slashed fuel taxes, and urged Brussels to give EU capitals "flexibility" to "drive the measures" rather than wait for unified bloc action. That tension between national solutions and pan-European coordination reflects a recurring pattern in European crises, and Jørgensen directly addressed it, saying closely coordinated action is necessary to "avoid fragmented national responses and disruptive signals to the markets," according to AP.
Diesel and Jet Fuel at Greatest Risk
While gas and oil prices affect households broadly, Jørgensen singled out diesel and jet fuel as facing the sharpest near-term supply pressure. The warning has particular salience for European aviation and freight, both of which depend heavily on Middle Eastern refining capacity and LNG flows that have been disrupted by the ongoing conflict. The Politico EU analysis published April 1 described the oil crisis as one that "threatens to clog off energy flows for the foreseeable future" and listed aviation, manufacturing, food prices, borrowing costs, and inflation among the cascading risks.
The commissioner said he was also examining loosening jet fuel regulations to permit more American imports and allowing greater ethanol blending in automotive fuel, moves that would require regulatory adjustments but could be implemented relatively quickly if conditions deteriorate further, according to EnergyConnects.
The Russian Gas Question
Jørgensen reaffirmed on Friday that the EU is maintaining its ban on purchases of Russian gas, which is intended to cut funding to Russia's war in Ukraine. The EU's dependence on Russian gas has already fallen from 45% before the Ukraine war to 10% now and is targeted to reach zero as supplies from other producers ramp up, the commissioner said at the Cyprus press conference, according to AP. He warned it would be "totally unacceptable" for Europe to buy energy that would "indirectly help finance the terrible war that Putin is conducting in Ukraine." The commissioner also said he was looking at alternative sources including Azerbaijan, Algeria, Canada, and smaller producers.
The EU's position on Russian gas comes with a complication: Jørgensen told the Financial Times he would make no change to EU legislation banning Russian LNG imports this year, even as some member states face acute pressure to find cheaper alternatives. That stance rules out one obvious short-term relief valve and adds urgency to the demand-side measures now under discussion.
NATO and the Broader Picture
The energy crisis is unfolding against a backdrop of sharpening transatlantic friction. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that the US would need to "examine" its relationship with NATO in the aftermath of the war, according to Euronews, amid signs that tensions between Washington and European allies have grown significantly since the conflict began. President Trump on Tuesday told nations facing fuel shortages to "build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just take it," a reference to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Euronews. The remark raised alarm in Brussels about whether the United States intends to remain engaged in the region long enough to deliver a settlement that reopens global shipping lanes.
French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking from Japan, praised Europe's "predictability" while criticizing unnamed partners that move faster but "could hurt you without even informing you," in remarks widely interpreted as directed at the Trump administration, according to Euronews.
With reserves being drawn down, prices still rising, and no settlement on the horizon, Brussels now faces a question it has not confronted since the 1970s: whether voluntary demand reduction measures will be enough, or whether governments will have to compel them.