Brent crude stood at $115.66 per barrel when markets opened on Monday, March 31 — the result of a 59% surge in March alone, which Reuters reported as the steepest monthly gain in the history of oil price tracking. Before the war disrupted Middle East shipping, roughly 20% of the world's oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz. That flow has been severely curtailed. The consequences are now cascading from the Gulf to Asia in ways that are reshaping daily life for hundreds of millions of people.
The Philippines: First National Energy Emergency
The Philippines was the first country to formally declare a national energy emergency following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, according to both Reuters and the Council on Foreign Relations. The Philippines is heavily dependent on Middle East oil imports, which account for approximately a quarter of the country's total energy imports according to UN News reporting. Authorities have introduced fuel rationing and cut back public events to conserve supplies. The government in Manila also granted emergency permission to purchase oil from countries currently under U.S. sanctions — a significant diplomatic signal of how acute the supply crunch has become.
Sri Lanka: Four-Day Workweek
Sri Lanka — a country that suffered a severe economic and fuel crisis in 2022 before receiving IMF support — is now facing a secondary shock. The government has cut the national workweek to four days and introduced fuel rationing, according to Reuters. The BBC confirmed that motorcyclists have been photographed in long queues at Sri Lankan petrol stations as shortages bite. Sri Lanka's reliance on imported refined products, combined with its limited foreign exchange reserves and the increased cost of maritime insurance following the Hormuz disruption, has left the country among the most exposed in South Asia.
Myanmar: Alternate-Day Driving
Myanmar, already engulfed in civil war since 2021, has introduced an alternate-day policy for private vehicles — meaning drivers with odd-numbered license plates can only drive on odd-numbered calendar days, and vice versa. The BBC reported the policy as one of the more dramatic supply-management measures in the region. Myanmar's military-backed authorities are attempting to conserve what fuel can still be obtained as shipping diversions and price increases squeeze imports.
South Korea: Poised for Nationwide Curbs
South Korea has already restricted driving at public institutions and is considering expanding those curbs to the general public if global oil prices climb further. South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol stated that the government could expand restrictions on passenger car use beyond public institutions if crude prices rise to approximately $120–$130 per barrel. Such a step would mark the country's first nationwide driving curbs since the 1991 Gulf War, when South Korea imposed a 10-day vehicle rotation system to conserve energy, Reuters reported. The government is also considering further fuel tax cuts to ease the burden on households.
Australia: Emergency Fuel Plan, Excise Halved
Australia entered the crisis with fuel reserves described as the highest in 15 years — but still well below the International Energy Agency's 90-day minimum recommendation, according to Reuters. The latest government numbers showed Australia holding 30 days of diesel, 30 days of jet fuel, and 39 days of petrol as of late March.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the government would halve the excise on fuel and diesel and remove the heavy road user charge for three months. According to the Australian Petroleum Institute's March 29 report, the average retail price of a litre of diesel had risen to more than A$3 (approximately US$2.06) and petrol to A$2.50. Halving the excise would reduce the cost of fuel by 26.3 Australian cents per litre, Albanese said. The government also announced the release of petrol and diesel from domestic strategic reserves and a temporary relaxation of fuel quality standards.
Indonesia: Emergency Delegation to Tokyo
Indonesia's president traveled to Tokyo to seek emergency energy supply arrangements to offset shortages described as "crippling" by Reuters. Indonesia was expected to announce its own driving curb measures imminently, according to the same March 31 Reuters report. Indonesia is a significant oil producer but is a net importer of refined petroleum products, making it vulnerable to Hormuz-linked disruptions in finished fuel supply chains.
Nigeria and Ethiopia: Violence, Virtual Meetings, and Collapsing Margins
The crisis has hit Nigeria with particular severity. Pump prices in Nigeria have risen by 65% — more than in most other countries in the region, where government price controls have partially buffered consumers, Reuters reported. Inflation in Nigeria had been declining from a record high before the war began. Since late February, the cost of transport and some food items has doubled. Businesses and labor unions have called on the government for emergency relief including tax incentives for refiners, more naira-based crude supply, and temporary cushioning measures.
Ethiopia's Ethio Engineering Group — a state enterprise with more than 3,000 employees — instructed staff to switch to virtual meetings to reduce fuel usage, Reuters reported, following government guidance to prevent a full-blown energy crisis. The Ethiopian government has responded by boosting fuel subsidies and issuing a set of energy-saving directives across the public sector.
Separately, the IEA's Policy Response Tracker, updated on March 31, described the global situation as "an unprecedented disruption to global fuel markets, tightening supply and placing significant pressure on consumers and economies worldwide."
The Violence Risk
A Reuters analysis published March 9 warned that nations with refining capacity would prioritize domestic needs and cut fuel exports, "thereby exacerbating the shortage of refined products" for countries dependent on imports. The piece, written by energy correspondent Ron Bousso, noted that "compounding errors and narrow self-interest threaten" to turn a manageable crisis into a systematic collapse in poorer energy-importing nations.
The Council on Foreign Relations reported that Slovenia and Sri Lanka have introduced formal fuel rationing, while countries including South Korea are encouraging voluntary fuel conservation. The CFR noted that the divergence between wealthy nations — which can absorb higher prices and have strategic reserves — and fuel-dependent developing economies is widening rapidly. In countries with fragile governance structures, energy shortages have historically preceded civil unrest and violence; the CFR and UN News both flagged this risk explicitly in their March analyses.
UN News, citing World Trade Organization monitoring, noted that "higher fuel prices now account for about a quarter of total imports" in several developing nations, and that rationing and public event cancellations represent the first wave of a policy response likely to intensify.
What Comes Next
Easter weekend — the first major travel event since the war began — represented what Reuters called "a near-term stress test for jet fuel and petrol supply." Beyond that, analysts are watching for whether Hormuz restrictions persist into the northern hemisphere summer driving season, when global demand typically peaks. Australia's fuel reserves, at 30 days of diesel, give a narrow window before emergency imports become critical even for a wealthy, developed economy.
South Korea's Finance Minister Koo framed the decision point clearly: $120–$130 per barrel crude is the threshold at which Seoul believes it must impose public driving curbs. With Brent at $115.66 on March 31, that threshold is not distant. What happens in nations with less institutional capacity — and less foreign exchange to bid for scarce cargoes — is less certain, and more alarming.
The 1970s oil shocks reshaped economies, toppled governments, and accelerated the end of the post-war growth era. The current disruption is, by the measure of price movement, already larger. The difference is how many countries have reserves, and how long those reserves last.