For only the third time in nearly two decades, China has edged ahead of the United States in global leadership approval ratings. The result comes from Gallup's 2025 World Poll, released Friday, which surveyed residents in more than 130 countries between March and October 2025. China's median approval rating stood at 36%, compared with 31% for the United States. The five-point gap is the widest Gallup has ever recorded in China's favor. The data were collected before the United States withdrew from 66 international organizations in January 2026 and before the outbreak of war with Iran in late February 2026.
A 20-Year Trend Reversed
Gallup has tracked leadership approval for the four major economic and military powers — the United States, China, Russia, and Germany — since the early 2000s. In that time, American approval has tracked closely with presidential administrations. Under President Barack Obama, median global approval of U.S. leadership reached a peak of 49% in 2009. It fell to a low of 30% during both the first and final years of President Donald Trump's first term. Under President Joe Biden it recovered somewhat, averaging 39% over four years. In 2024, U.S. approval stood at 39%.
In 2025, it fell to 31%. That eight-point single-year decline returned U.S. standing to the low levels last seen during Trump's first term and during the George W. Bush administration's final years. According to Gallup, China had previously led the United States in global approval only twice: once during the Bush years and once during Trump's first term.
China's approval, by contrast, has been more stable. Gallup noted that Beijing's ratings have changed little over the years, with President Xi Jinping in continuous leadership since 2013. In 2024, China's approval was 32%. In 2025, it rose four points to 36%, the highest it has been since the period around 2006 to 2008.
The Numbers That Define the Shift
The headline figures tell only part of the story. Looking at net approval (the share who approve minus the share who disapprove) reveals a starker picture. In 2025, U.S. net approval stood at negative 15, its lowest on record according to Gallup, narrowly worse than the negative 13 recorded in 2020. China's net approval was negative 1, essentially flat.
Disapproval of U.S. leadership rose to 48%, a record high in the Gallup trend. China's disapproval remained flat at 37%.
Gallup noted that 2025 was only the second year on record in which both Washington and Beijing registered negative net approval ratings worldwide. China first turned negative in 2020 and has remained there since. The United States, by contrast, has historically bounced between positive and negative territory depending on who occupies the White House.
The overall ranking of the four major powers in 2025: Germany at 48%, China at 36%, the United States at 31%, and Russia at 26%. Germany has held the top position among the four for nine consecutive years, a streak that has run through the chancellorships of Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, and Friedrich Merz. Germany was the only one of the four to ever achieve majority approval globally, reaching that mark in 2020.
Among Allies: The Deepest Cuts
Gallup's companion report on NATO countries, published in February 2026, shows where the declines were sharpest. Across 31 NATO member states, median approval of U.S. leadership fell 14 percentage points in 2025 to 21%. That level matches the lows recorded during Trump's first term and the Bush years.
Germany experienced the single largest drop of any country in the survey: down 39 points. Portugal fell 38 points. Sixteen other NATO countries saw declines of at least 10 points. Among Nordic nations, approval fell to roughly one in ten. Sweden registered 9%, Iceland 9%, and Norway 10%.
Only two NATO countries had majority approval for U.S. leadership in 2025: Poland at 68% and Albania at 64%. Turkey was the only NATO nation where approval increased by double digits, gaining 12 points.
Israel, while not a NATO member, recorded one of the largest increases globally. After a sharp fall in 2024, approval of U.S. leadership in Israel rebounded to 76% in 2025, a 13-point increase, following Trump's return to the White House.
Within NATO, China's approval also rose, climbing eight points to a median of 22%. That is still well below the EU's 60% and Germany's 54% approval among alliance members, but it placed Beijing and Washington at roughly similar levels of support inside the alliance, a pattern last seen during Trump's first term. The United States, per Gallup, is now closer in approval to Russia (which sits at 12% among NATO residents) than it is to Germany or the EU.
What the Data Do Not Yet Capture
Gallup was explicit about the limitations of this dataset. All surveys were conducted between March and October 2025. The results predate three significant developments that analysts expect would push U.S. approval lower still.
First, in January 2026, the United States formally withdrew from 66 international organizations, including major United Nations bodies. Second, in late February 2026, U.S. forces launched military strikes on Iran, beginning a conflict that has continued for more than five weeks. Third, President Trump reiterated his stated desire to acquire Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally, prompting Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to warn that a U.S. military takeover of Greenland would effectively end the NATO alliance.
None of these events are reflected in the 2025 survey numbers. Gallup has not indicated when its 2026 wave of data collection will begin or be published.
The Pattern Behind the Shift
The data point to a structural pattern that has repeated under Trump and, to a lesser degree, under Bush: U.S. global approval falls most sharply in countries that are among America's closest allies. The 2025 results were widespread, with declines spanning many regions and country types. But the concentration of the largest drops in Western Europe and traditional partners echoes what Gallup documented in 2017 and 2018 during Trump's first term.
China's gain, Gallup noted, reflects this dynamic as much as it reflects growing enthusiasm for Beijing. Many of China's largest approval increases occurred in countries where U.S. approval fell simultaneously, including the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, and Ireland. The shift is less a vote for China than a withdrawal of confidence in the United States.
A separate December 2025 survey conducted by Politico and the polling firm Public First found that pluralities in Germany and France, and a majority in Canada, described the United States as a negative force globally. That survey predates the Iran war as well.
Historical Context
China led the United States in global approval in 2007 and 2008, during the Iraq War's most unpopular phase and the final period of the Bush administration. It happened again briefly during Trump's first term. Each time, the lead narrowed once U.S. leadership changed or the specific driver of disapproval faded.
Whether that pattern holds in the current environment is an open question. The 2026 data, when collected, will be the first to fully capture the Iran war, the withdrawal from international organizations, and the escalating disputes with traditional partners including Canada, Denmark, and Germany.
The Gallup survey covers more than 130 countries and represents the most comprehensive annual measure of global public sentiment toward major powers. For the United States, the 2025 numbers mark a low point not seen since the lowest years of the first Trump term. Whether the 2026 data, capturing an active war and accelerating diplomatic ruptures, will go lower still remains to be measured.