The War Gets Bigger: Houthis Open a Third Front as US Admits Only a Third of Iran's Missiles Are Gone

What Happened: Houthis Enter the War

In the early hours of March 28, 2026 — Day 29 of the US-Israel war on Iran — Yemen's Houthi rebel group fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel, marking its first direct strike in the current conflict. Israel's military confirmed it detected and intercepted a missile launched from Yemen. Air raid sirens sounded around Beersheba and the area near Israel's main nuclear research center.

Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree claimed responsibility in a video statement posted to X, describing the attack as targeting "sensitive military positions for the Israeli enemy." Saree stated: "The operations are in support of efforts from the Islamic Republic of Iran, and resistance axis in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine." He added: "The operation has achieved its objectives successfully."

The entry of the Houthis was a notable reversal. Euronews reported that prior to Saturday's strike, the Houthis had indicated they would not join the war, citing a request from Tehran. That posture changed after Israel threatened to "escalate and expand" its campaign against Iran on Friday, March 27, and subsequently struck Iranian nuclear facilities.

The immediate concern analysts and shipping industry officials flagged: whether the Houthis would now resume attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, as they did during Israel's war on Gaza from late 2023 into early 2025.

Context: What the Houthis Did to Red Sea Shipping Before

The Houthis seized Yemen's capital Sanaa in 2014 and have held it since. During the Israel-Hamas war, the group attacked more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two vessels and killing four sailors, according to AP News. The attacks, which ran from November 2023 until January 2025, effectively halted global commercial shipping through the Red Sea — a passage through which approximately $1 trillion worth of goods traveled annually, per Euronews.

The US-led military campaign to suppress Houthi attacks in 2024 was described by AP News as "the most intense running sea battle the Navy had faced since World War II." That campaign did not neutralize the Houthis' capacity to strike. The group has remained armed and operationally intact.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait — the narrow passage at the southern end of the Red Sea, controlled by Yemen's geography — is a separate chokepoint from the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blockaded since February 28. If the Houthis resume attacks on shipping there, the global energy and goods supply chain would face simultaneous pressure at two separate bottlenecks.

The Reuters Exclusive: A Third of Iran's Missiles, Not All of Them

On March 27, Reuters published an exclusive based on five people familiar with US intelligence. The finding: the United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed approximately one-third of Iran's pre-war missile arsenal.

According to the same sources, the status of roughly another one-third is uncertain — those missiles are believed to be damaged, destroyed, or buried in underground tunnels and bunkers, but cannot be confirmed as neutralized. The remaining third is assessed as intact and potentially still usable.

One source told Reuters the intelligence picture was similar for Iran's drone capability — approximately one-third confirmed destroyed.

The Reuters findings stand in direct contrast to statements by President Trump. At a televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday, March 26, Trump said Iran had "very few rockets left." In the same meeting, however, Trump appeared to acknowledge the ongoing threat, stating: "The problem with the straits is this: let's say we do a great job. We say we got 99% (of their missiles). 1% is unacceptable, because 1% is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars."

A Pentagon spokesman offered different metrics in response to Reuters' inquiry: Iranian missile and drone attacks were down approximately 90% since the start of the war, and Central Command had "damaged or destroyed over 66% of Iranian missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards." The Pentagon did not directly contest the one-third figure for confirmed missile destruction.

Israeli military officials had estimated Iran possessed approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel before the war began. Israeli officials told Reuters that over 335 missile launchers had been "neutralized," representing approximately 70% of Iran's launch capacity. Privately, Israeli officials acknowledged that eliminating the remaining 30% of launch capacity would be comparatively more difficult.

Prince Sultan Air Base: 12 US Troops Wounded

On March 27, Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, wounding 12 US troops — two of them seriously — and damaging at least two Air Force refueling aircraft, according to Reuters and The New York Times. A US official described the strike as one of the most serious breaches of American defenses since the war began on February 28.

AP News reported that more than two dozen US troops had been wounded in Iranian attacks on Prince Sultan Air Base during the week of March 21–27, according to two people briefed on the situation. Iran fired six ballistic missiles and 29 drones at Saudi Arabia in the most recent salvo.

The Washington Post reported that the strike also damaged at least two Air Force refueling aircraft, a significant operational concern given their role supporting combat sorties over Iran.

Rubio at the G7: "Weeks, Not Months" — But Longer Than Expected

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with G7 foreign ministers in France on March 27 and told reporters the US expects its military operations to conclude "in a matter of weeks, not months." He stated the US was "on or ahead of schedule in that operation."

However, Reuters reported that at the war's four-week mark, Rubio told G7 ministers that another two to four weeks would be needed to achieve US objectives — an implicit acknowledgment that the initial 4-to-6-week timeline projected at the start of the war was insufficient.

Rubio also stated that Washington can achieve its aims without deploying ground troops, while simultaneously acknowledging the US was deploying troops to the region "to give the president maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust the contingencies, should they emerge." Two contingents of thousands of Marines were en route, with the first expected to arrive around the end of March aboard an amphibious assault ship. Thousands of elite airborne soldiers were also expected to be deployed.

Rubio used his G7 meetings to raise a separate concern: that even after the conflict ends, Iran could attempt to impose shipping tolls through the Strait of Hormuz. He indicated that European and Asian nations that benefit from free passage through the waterway should contribute to efforts to secure it.

Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites

On Friday, March 27, Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation confirmed strikes on the Shahid Khondab Heavy Water Complex in Arak and the Ardakan yellowcake production plant in Yazd Province. Iranian authorities stated there were no casualties and no risk of radioactive contamination from either strike. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed on X that it had been informed by Iran of no increase in off-site radiation levels at the yellowcake facility, and stated it would investigate.

The Arak heavy-water reactor has not been operational since Israel struck it in June, according to Euronews; the report did not specify the year of that strike. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on X that Iran would "exact a heavy price for Israeli crimes." Iran's strike on Prince Sultan Air Base followed within hours.

The Broader Picture at Day 29

The war that began February 28, 2026 with US and Israeli strikes killing Iran's supreme leader and other senior officials has, by the end of its fourth week, produced the following verified outcomes:

• More than 1,750 people killed in Iran since February 28, according to Iran's deputy permanent representative to the International Maritime Organization, as reported by CNN on March 26.
• US strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets as of Wednesday, March 25, and sunk 92% of the Iranian navy's large vessels, according to Central Command.
• Iran's missile and drone attacks on US and allied targets are down approximately 90% from the war's opening days, per a Pentagon official.
• Twelve US troops wounded — two seriously — in a single strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27 (Reuters). More than two dozen wounded at that base during the week, per AP News.
• Thirteen US troops have been killed in the conflict since February 28, with more than 300 total wounded — 273 of whom had returned to duty as of March 27, according to a US official cited by Reuters.
• Only approximately one-third of Iran's missile arsenal confirmed destroyed, per five US intelligence sources (Reuters exclusive, March 27).
• Trump's approval rating fell to 36% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published March 24 — a four-point decline from the prior week and 11 points below his 47% approval at the start of his second term.
• Houthis entered the war on March 28 with a ballistic missile attack on Israel — the first since the current conflict began.

Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from March 27 to April 6, according to Reuters and NPR — the second such extension in less than a week. Iran publicly denied any negotiations were underway even as Trump described talks as "going very well." Tehran's 15-point ceasefire counterproposal, which included international recognition of Iran's sovereign right to control the Strait of Hormuz, had not been formally accepted or rejected by Washington as of March 28.

Iran had agreed to facilitate humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through the Strait, accepting a request from the United Nations, according to AP News. Iran's UN ambassador Ali Bahreini said Iran agreed to "facilitate and expedite" such movement. The broader commercial shipping blockade through the Strait remained in effect.