Weather March 28, 2026

2026 Hurricane Season: Fewer Storms Expected, But Rapid Intensification Risk Is "Very Concerning"

AccuWeather's first seasonal outlook predicts 11 to 16 named storms — near or below the historical average — as El Niño develops in the Pacific. But abnormally warm ocean water extending hundreds of feet deep is raising alarms about storms that could rapidly strengthen just before landfall, leaving residents little time to react.

The Numbers: Near or Below Average, With Caveats

AccuWeather released its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on March 25, projecting:

AccuWeather places a 40% probability on more than 14 named storms forming this season, and a 15% probability on more than 16 storms, according to the forecast.

For context, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Notably, 2025 was the first year in a decade in which no hurricane made landfall on the U.S. mainland. "For the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane struck the U.S. and that was a much needed break," said Dr. Neil Jacobs, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, as quoted by the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.

The 2026 season officially begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

El Niño: The Storm Suppressor With a Track Record of Exceptions

The primary reason forecasters expect a below-to-near-average season is the anticipated development of an El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures near the equator of the eastern Pacific warm to at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit above long-term averages. When that happens, it typically generates stronger upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin — horizontal winds at different altitudes that shear apart developing tropical systems before they can organize into hurricanes.

Since the satellite era began in the 1960s, El Niño years have averaged about 10 named storms and five hurricanes — well below the long-term average. La Niña years, by contrast, have averaged around 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, according to AccuWeather's forecast documentation as reported by UPI.

AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva noted that El Niño is forecast to develop and strengthen throughout the summer and autumn, which would likely translate to fewer storms during the second half of the season compared to the first half.

However, forecasters and emergency management officials are quick to note that El Niño does not eliminate hurricane risk. The 1992 Atlantic season had only seven named storms — well below average — but included Hurricane Andrew, one of the most destructive hurricanes in U.S. history. Hurricane Michael in 2018 struck the Florida Panhandle during an El Niño year. And 2023, despite El Niño conditions, produced 20 named storms — above the historical average — largely because Atlantic sea surface temperatures that year were the warmest on record.

"What made 2023 very special is it was also the warmest year on record if we take a look at the average sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin," DaSilva told UPI.

The Real Concern: Rapid Intensification and Abnormally Warm Water

The forecast's most significant warning is not about storm count — it is about rapid intensification: the process by which a hurricane's maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph within 24 hours. It is the phenomenon that transformed Hurricane Michael in 2018 from a Category 2 storm to a Category 5 in under 24 hours before it struck the Florida Panhandle.

"This year we are very concerned about rapid intensification, very similar to the last couple of years," DaSilva told UPI. "Those waters are also exceptionally, exceptionally warm," he said of the deep ocean heat content across the Atlantic basin. "That is why once again we are very concerned about rapid intensification this upcoming hurricane season."

According to AccuWeather, the warm water does not just sit near the surface — it extends hundreds of feet deep into the Atlantic basin. This ocean heat content is particularly dangerous because it means a storm cannot dissipate the upper layer of warm water by mixing cooler water upward, which normally acts as a natural brake on intensification.

AccuWeather forecasters also noted that sea surface temperatures are already above historical averages in parts of the Atlantic and are expected to reach "exceptionally warm levels again this summer," according to USA Today's reporting on the forecast. That raises the possibility of development earlier in the season or of storms that spin up rapidly near the coast with compressed warning windows.

DaSilva described the sea surface temperature maps as showing "a very concerning trend as we get ready to head into hurricane season" and said the pattern is "a recipe for rapid intensification."

Where the Risk Is Highest: Northern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas

AccuWeather specifically identified the northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as facing above-average risk of direct impacts in 2026.

"The areas I'm most concerned about are from Tampa northward through the Big Bend of Florida toward the New Orleans area, as well as the Carolinas, including the Outer Banks down toward the North-South Carolina border," DaSilva said in a statement to the Sarasota Herald-Tribune. "These areas have an above-average risk of direct impacts this season."

DaSilva said forecasters analyzed 14 analog years with similar atmospheric conditions and found a clustering of historical storm tracks in the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas. Central and southern Texas, by contrast, could see a lower-than-average risk.

AccuWeather defines a "direct impact" broadly to include not just landfall but also any storm whose center passes within 60 miles of a U.S. coastline, generates tropical-storm-force wind gusts on land, produces flooding, or creates at least 2 feet of storm surge. That definition means a direct impact count of 3 to 5 includes storms that may not formally make landfall but still cause significant damage.

"It Only Takes One": The Limits of Seasonal Forecasting

Seasonal hurricane forecasts tell meteorologists roughly how busy the Atlantic basin is likely to be. They do not predict which specific communities will be struck. That distinction matters, and multiple experts this week stressed it explicitly.

"Seasonal forecasts were never designed to tell a family whether their home is going to be hit," said Craig Fugate, former FEMA administrator and former Florida state emergency management director, as quoted by USA Today. "People hear 'El Niño will suppress activity' or 'below-average season' and translate that into 'I'm probably safe.' History says otherwise."

Fugate noted that the Gulf of Mexico plays by different rules than the open Atlantic. "Once a system gets into the Gulf, local conditions matter far more than seasonal signals," he said. "You can go from a tropical storm to a major hurricane near landfall faster than people can adjust." His bottom line: "Seasonal forecasts are about how busy the ocean might be. Disasters are about where one storm goes. El Niño may change the numbers, but it doesn't change your risk. Prepare the same every year, because it only takes one."

DaSilva echoed the message: "It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is. Even if it's expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States."

What Comes Next: CSU and NOAA Forecasts Still Ahead

AccuWeather's March 25 outlook is the first major seasonal forecast for 2026, but it will not be the last. Colorado State University's atmospheric science team — which has issued seasonal hurricane forecasts annually since 1984, a program developed by the late Dr. William Gray — is scheduled to release its first 2026 forecast on April 9, according to CSU's forecast archive. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration typically releases its own seasonal forecast in May.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other international modeling groups are also expected to release seasonal outlooks in April. Collectively, these forecasts will give a clearer picture of how the El Niño pattern is developing and how warm Atlantic waters may interact with it through the peak of the season, which historically occurs between mid-August and mid-October.

For the 41 million Americans living in hurricane-prone coastal areas, the next 68 days before the June 1 season start represent the standard preparation window: reviewing evacuation routes, assembling emergency kits, and checking insurance coverage, regardless of what any seasonal forecast says.