The Two-Tier Strait: China and India Are Getting Their Oil. The West Is Not.

The Passage

On Monday, March 31, two Chinese ultra-large container vessels — the CSCL Indian Ocean and the CSCL Arctic Ocean, both operated by state-owned shipping giant COSCO — sailed through the Strait of Hormuz and into open waters. It was their second attempt; they had turned back on Friday, March 28. According to data from the MarineTraffic tracking platform cited by Reuters, the ships passed close to the Iranian-controlled island of Larak and are now bound for Port Klang, Malaysia.

Rebecca Gerdes, a data analyst at Kpler (which owns MarineTraffic), confirmed to Reuters that these were "the first container vessels to leave the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict, excluding Iranian flag vessels."

China's foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning confirmed the transit at a press briefing on Tuesday, stating that "three Chinese vessels recently transited the Strait of Hormuz" following "coordination with relevant parties." She expressed China's "gratitude" to those parties — without naming Iran. (Source: Channel News Asia/AFP, March 31, 2026.)

Separately, Reuters reported that a Greek-operated, Maltese-flagged tanker called the Marathi — carrying Saudi crude bound for India — also exited the Gulf recently. It was the third loaded crude tanker operated by Greek firm Dynacom to leave the strait since the war began. The company did not comment. Reuters described Dynacom as "one of the few shipowners willing to risk crossing the strait."

The "Friendly Nations" List

The Chinese transit did not happen by luck. It happened by invitation.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly named five countries whose ships would be granted passage through the strait. According to reporting by the Times of India, Scroll.in, and the Iranian consulate general in Mumbai, Araghchi stated: "We permitted passage through the Strait of Hormuz for friendly nations including China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan." He added that vessels linked to Iran's adversaries would not be allowed to transit. (Sources: Times of India, March 27, 2026; Scroll.in, March 26, 2026; Indian Express, March 29, 2026.)

Araghchi also indicated the list could expand, telling Iranian media: "You have seen on the news: China, Russia, Pakistan, Iraq, and India. Two of its ships passed through a few nights ago, and some other countries, and even Bangladesh, I believe." (Source: News24Online, citing Iranian media, March 26, 2026.)

The system is not purely symbolic. India has launched a formal naval operation — "Operation Urja Suraksha" — to escort its energy tankers through the strait. According to NDTV and The Week (India), Indian Navy warships have escorted at least two sets of Indian-flagged LPG tankers, the BW Elm and BW Tyr, through the Gulf of Oman after they transited Hormuz. The Indian Navy took the ships under escort in the Gulf of Oman and accompanied them toward Indian waters. (Sources: NDTV, March 24, 2026; The Week India, March 29, 2026.)

The Toll Booth

Access for "friendly" ships is not free. Bloomberg reported on March 24 that Iran has begun charging commercial vessels up to $2 million per voyage for transit through the strait. The payments are being sought "on an ad hoc basis, effectively creating an informal toll on the waterway," according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.

Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi confirmed the fee on Iranian state television, stating: "Now, because war has costs, naturally [there is a charge]." Iran's parliament has since passed legislation formalizing the toll, according to Türkiye Today. (Sources: Bloomberg, March 24, 2026; Türkiye Today, March 30, 2026; Al Jazeera, March 26, 2026.)

James Kraska, a professor of international maritime law at the U.S. Naval War College, told CNN that "imposing transit fees is a violation of the rules of transit passage" under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Under UNCLOS Article 38, ships of all states enjoy the right of transit passage through straits used for international navigation, and coastal states cannot suspend or charge for this passage. (Source: CNN, March 28, 2026.)

Iran has not acknowledged any violation. It has framed the arrangement as a wartime security measure, not a toll — a distinction with no practical difference for shipowners writing the checks.

Who's Locked Out

The countries not on the list are, effectively, the countries fighting Iran or allied with those who are. That includes the United States, Israel, the United Kingdom, and the European Union — the very economies now scrambling for energy.

On Tuesday, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen sent a letter to energy ministers ahead of an emergency meeting, warning governments to prepare for a "prolonged disruption" to energy markets. He identified jet fuel and diesel as the most exposed supply chains. Argus Media analyst Benedict George told Reuters that the last kerosene shipments that transited Hormuz before its closure are due to arrive in Europe around April 10. After that, stockpiles — sufficient for approximately three months of demand — begin to draw down. The EU sources around 15% of its kerosene from Middle East suppliers, with additional indirect exposure through Indian refineries that process Middle Eastern crude. (Source: Reuters, March 31, 2026.)

European gas prices have risen more than 70% since the war began on February 28, per Reuters. Brent crude is set to close March with a 58% monthly gain — the largest on record in data stretching back to June 1988, according to LSEG. WTI settled above $100 for the first time since 2022, closing at $102.88 on Monday. (Sources: Reuters, March 31, 2026; CNBC, March 30, 2026.)

"Go Get Your Own Oil"

Into this divide stepped President Trump — not to close it, but to widen it.

In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, Trump directed criticism at countries that had refused to join the military campaign against Iran. He told them to "build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT." He added: "You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" (Source: Reuters, March 31, 2026.)

The statement effectively endorses the two-tier reality: those willing to negotiate bilaterally with Iran (China, India) are getting energy. Those waiting for the U.S. to reopen the strait on their behalf are being told to figure it out themselves. And per a Wall Street Journal report from March 30, Trump has privately told aides he is willing to end the war even if Hormuz remains largely closed — leaving the reopening as someone else's problem. (Source: WSJ, reported via Reuters and Bloomberg, March 30-31, 2026.)

What This Means

The Strait of Hormuz has historically been a global commons — open to all commercial shipping under international law. For decades, U.S. naval power guaranteed that openness. The current arrangement is something new: a selective chokepoint, where passage depends on your country's relationship with Tehran.

For China and India, this is an inconvenience with a workaround — a $2 million fee and some diplomatic coordination. For Europe, Japan, and South Korea, it is an existential energy threat without an obvious solution short of military action they've shown no appetite for.

The precedent is what matters. If the war ends tomorrow and the strait fully reopens, this episode has demonstrated that Iran can selectively close the world's most important energy corridor and extract concessions for access. It has demonstrated that major powers like China and India will negotiate bilaterally for passage rather than insist on freedom of navigation as a principle. And it has demonstrated that the United States — the traditional guarantor of open maritime commons — may simply tell its allies to handle it themselves.

The Strait of Hormuz normally carries approximately one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply and a significant share of global LNG, according to Reuters and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The question is no longer whether that flow can be disrupted. It is who gets to decide when it resumes — and on what terms.