Day 31: Trump Says Iran Caved, Wants to 'Take the Oil,' and Kuwait Just Got Hit

What Trump Said — And What Iran Said

Speaking aboard Air Force One late Sunday night, President Donald Trump told reporters that Iran had agreed to the majority of the US's 15-point ceasefire plan. "They gave us most of the points. Why wouldn't they?" Trump said, according to multiple outlets including CNBC and the New York Times. "They're agreeing with us on the plan."

Trump also claimed the talks had involved both "direct and indirect" contact with Iranian leadership. He said Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei — who assumed power after his father Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 — "may be alive but he's obviously very seriously in trouble. He's seriously wounded."

Iran flatly denied these accounts. Tehran has consistently rejected the 15-point US plan, which the Iranian government publicly called equivalent to a demand for unconditional surrender. Iran issued its own five-point counterproposal, which includes US payment of war reparations and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — conditions Washington has not accepted. Iran's foreign ministry has repeatedly stated there are "no negotiations."

Foreign Affairs, citing multiple analysts, characterized the US 15-point plan as asking Iran to terminate its nuclear program entirely and accept sharp limits on its missile arsenal — terms no Iranian government has been willing to accept. The same analysis noted that this war is structurally different from the June 2025 conflict: Iran's response has been far more forceful, it has expanded the number of allied armed groups fighting on its behalf, and it is led by a new supreme leader with no track record of compromise.

The 20-Ship Hormuz Deal: What Actually Happened

Trump's most concrete claim was verified independently: Iran agreed to allow 20 Pakistani-flagged ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, at a rate of approximately two per day starting Monday morning.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced the deal following a four-nation summit in Islamabad attended by the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt. The meeting was framed as a confidence-building measure — a small, limited reopening of Hormuz to show that negotiations can produce results.

Pakistan confirmed it is prepared to host formal US-Iran talks "in coming days," making Islamabad the first country to publicly offer itself as a neutral venue. Pakistan has been the primary conduit for indirect US-Iran communications throughout the war, a role confirmed by both American and Pakistani officials, according to Reuters.

Iran previously announced that ships from five nations — China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan — would be allowed selective transit through Hormuz. The new 20-ship deal applies specifically to Pakistani-flagged oil tankers. The Strait remains effectively closed to most international shipping, with the UN estimating more than 3,200 vessels remain stranded or diverted as of late March.

Brent crude rose 3.2% to $116.12 per barrel during early Asia trading on Monday in response to renewed ground invasion fears, even as the partial Hormuz deal was announced. WTI gained 3.4% to $102.96 per barrel, according to CNBC.

Trump's FT Interview: 'Take the Oil'

In a separate Financial Times interview published Sunday, Trump said his "preference would be to take the oil" in Iran. He specifically raised the possibility of seizing Kharg Island — the small island off Iran's coast that handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports.

"My favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran," Trump told the FT, "but some stupid people back in the US say: 'why are you doing that?' But they're stupid people."

Trump said of Kharg Island: "Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't. We have a lot of options." He added: "I don't think they have any defence. We could take it very easily."

He compared the potential seizure to what he described as the US effectively gaining control of Venezuela's oil industry following the capture of Nicolás Maduro earlier this year.

Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations to deploy ground forces into Iran, according to CBS News sources cited by the BBC. US Central Command confirmed on Saturday that an additional 3,500 sailors and marines arrived in the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli. Thousands of soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division have separately been ordered to support the war effort. The total number of US troops in the Middle East theater now approaches 57,000, according to Pentagon figures.

Iran has reinforced defenses on Kharg Island in response, including deploying additional military personnel, shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, and laying anti-personnel and anti-armor mines in surrounding waters, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence cited by CNN.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Iranian forces were "waiting for American soldiers" and would "rain fire" on any US troops attempting to enter Iranian territory. An Iranian military official told local media that shipping in the Red Sea would be targeted in the event of a ground invasion.

Seth Krummrich, vice president of Global Guardian and former US chief of staff for special operations at CENTCOM, told CNBC's Squawk Box Asia: "We're probably closer to the beginning or to the middle of this story than we are to the end."

Kuwait: Desalination Plant Hit, One Dead

Overnight Sunday, Iran attacked a power generation and water desalination plant in Kuwait. Kuwait's Ministry of Electricity confirmed the strike, saying "a service building at a power and water desalination plant was attacked as part of the Iranian aggression against the State of Kuwait, resulting in the death of an Indian worker and significant material damage to the building."

The victim was an Indian national employed at the facility, confirmed by Kuwait's power ministry. Emergency teams were deployed immediately. Kuwait said its electricity and water systems "remain stable" and contingency plans had been activated to maintain supply.

Gulf desalination plants supply most of the region's drinking water. Attacks on them constitute strikes on critical civilian water infrastructure, which is protected under international humanitarian law. The Kuwait Ministry of Electricity said the attack was attributed to Iran, though it did not specify whether a drone or missile was used.

Gulf states reported intercepting additional drones and missiles on Monday morning, according to Al Jazeera's live reporting. The Houthis in Yemen also fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at "sensitive Israeli military sites," their media arm announced.

The Diplomatic Picture: Pakistan's Balancing Act

Pakistan's hosting of the four-nation Islamabad summit represents the most concrete multilateral diplomatic effort to date to end the war. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt all sent foreign ministers — regional powers with influence over both Washington and Tehran.

Pakistan occupies a uniquely precarious position: it has a long border with Iran, is a US ally, has significant economic ties to Gulf states, and has been shuttling messages between the two sides since the war began. Pakistan's announcement that it will host formal talks "in coming days" is the clearest signal yet that a structured negotiation channel may be opening.

Foreign Affairs assessed in a March 30 analysis that the war's resolution requires the international community — particularly countries that carry influence with both Trump and Tehran — to "redouble its efforts to bring about an urgently needed cease-fire that, unlike the one announced in June, is seriously negotiated and can hold." The June 2025 ceasefire, the analysis notes, required no genuine negotiations and broke down within months.

The core obstacle remains the same: the US 15-point plan effectively requires Iran to dismantle its nuclear program and accept permanent constraints on its missile arsenal. Iran's counterproposal requires the US to pay reparations and recognize Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz. Neither side has moved toward the other's position. Trump's claim that Iran has "agreed to most of the points" has not been confirmed by any Iranian official or independent intermediary.

What the Numbers Say

As of Day 31, the confirmed death toll stands at approximately 3,461 killed in Iran (including 236 children), 1,238 in Lebanon, and 13 US service members, according to figures compiled from multiple official sources. At least 20,000 seafarers remain stranded on hundreds of ships in the Persian Gulf. Seven have been killed, three are missing.

Oil has posted its largest monthly surge since 1990, up approximately 51% since February 28. Brent crude opened Monday at $116 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil trade and approximately 30% of global fertilizer shipments. It has been effectively closed for 30 days.

The IEA has characterized the current energy supply disruption as the worst in history — worse than the twin shocks of the 1970s combined — citing the simultaneous loss of Iranian and Russian export capacity.

A new AP-NORC poll found 59% of Americans believe US military action in Iran has gone too far. 45% said they are worried about affording gasoline, up from 30% before the war began.