Even If Hormuz Opens Tomorrow, the Damage Would Take Months to Undo

2,000 Ships. Nowhere to Go.

Approximately 2,000 ships are currently stranded in the Gulf region amid Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Maritime Organization. About 400 of those vessels are holding position in the nearby Gulf of Oman, waiting for the strait to reopen, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.

The rest have been forced to reroute — through the Suez Canal, or on the much longer journey around Africa's Cape of Good Hope — adding weeks and thousands of miles to supply routes for goods heading to Asia and Europe. Saudi oil shipments have been diverted through the Red Sea, bypassing the strait entirely.

"When the war is officially over, and the bombardments are stopped, that does not mean that the war is over for logistics, because then the real work starts," said Nils Haupt, senior director for corporate communications at Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world's largest shipping companies.

"We will see hundreds of ships who want to call in at the key ports in the Persian Gulf. Lots of containers are going into the region, and we will see disruption of supply chains going to and from the Persian Gulf," Haupt told Al Jazeera.

The Backlog Problem

Svein Ringbakken, managing director of the Norwegian Shipowners' Mutual War Risks Association, put it plainly: "The short answer is that it would take months to get shipping supply chains back to normal because of the backlog."

The problem compounds. Production lines across multiple industries have halted due to lack of storage capacity — when you can't ship what you've made, you eventually stop making it. The IMO has confirmed at least 18 attacks on vessels in the Gulf since the war began February 28, damaging ships and port infrastructure alongside the well-publicized strikes on energy facilities.

More than 40 energy assets across the Middle East have been "severely or very severely damaged," according to the International Energy Agency. Companies including QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, and Bahrain's Bapco Energies have declared force majeure — a legal term signaling they cannot meet contractual obligations due to circumstances beyond their control.

"Add to this the damage to both production facilities and port infrastructure," Ringbakken said. "This all adds inefficiencies when the strait is opened."

Beyond Oil: Petrochemicals, Fertilizer, Plastics

The narrative around Hormuz has focused on oil and gas — understandably, given that roughly 20% of the world's crude and LNG normally passes through it. But the strait is also the transit route for large volumes of petrochemicals, fertilizer, and the raw materials used in plastic manufacturing.

Fertilizer disruptions hit food production. Petrochemical shortages ripple into everything from packaging to pharmaceuticals to construction materials. The closure has effectively put a choke hold on multiple industrial supply chains simultaneously — and unwinding that takes longer than simply reopening a waterway.

The Risk Calculus Has Permanently Changed

SV Anchan, chairman of the global shipping and logistics firm Safesea, whose tanker was rammed by two unmanned ships on March 11 — killing one crew member — described a fundamental shift in how the industry will operate going forward.

"From an industry standpoint, the issue extends well beyond access. The emergence of asymmetric threats, including unmanned attack capabilities, has fundamentally altered the risk environment," Anchan told Al Jazeera.

"Even in the event of a full reopening, a return to normal conditions will require a sustained period of stability. Shipowners, charterers and insurers will seek consistency, credible security assurances, and structured risk frameworks before committing operations at scale."

Translation: insurance premiums for Gulf transits will remain elevated. Shipping rates will stay high. Route diversification — the Cape of Good Hope alternative — will be baked into more companies' contingency planning permanently. The economics of Gulf shipping have been repriced.

What Trump's Exit Would and Wouldn't Fix

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Trump has privately told aides he is willing to end the war even if Hormuz remains closed — that further military action is "not his immediate priority." Markets rallied on that signal. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posted gains Tuesday morning on peace hopes.

But the experts are cautioning against assuming that an end to active combat = an end to the supply chain crisis. "Rebuilding the confidence of the shipping industry would be long-lasting," said Marco Forgione, director general of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade.

Even in a best-case scenario — ceasefire reached before April 6, Hormuz fully reopened within days — the 2,000 stranded ships need to be processed through ports that have been damaged and are operating below capacity. The backlog of goods in storage needs to move. Production lines that shut down need to restart. Insurance markets need to reprice risk downward. That process, analysts say, takes months.

The Human Cost Nobody's Counting

The disruption has fallen hardest on workers who have the least options. A BBC report Tuesday highlighted the dilemma facing Asian migrant workers in Gulf states — millions of people from South and Southeast Asia whose remittances sustain families back home. Iran's strikes on Gulf states have made an already precarious existence more dangerous, but most cannot simply leave: the jobs are there, the money is needed, and the flights home are expensive.

For these workers, a ceasefire announcement on the news won't immediately change their calculus. They'll wait to see whether the security situation actually improves before concluding the worst is over.

The Bottom Line

Markets are pricing in peace. Analysts are pricing in months of pain. Both can be right. A ceasefire would stop the bleeding — but the patient has already lost a lot of blood. Brent crude's 59% surge in March, gas above $4 a gallon in the U.S., 40+ damaged energy facilities, and a shipping industry that has been structurally shaken don't reverse on the day someone signs a deal.

The question isn't just when the war ends. It's how long the war's economic afterlife lasts — and who pays for it.