Immigration Collapse Drives Population Decline Across America's Largest Cities
New U.S. Census Bureau data shows net international migration fell in nine out of ten U.S. counties between 2024 and 2025. Los Angeles County lost nearly 54,000 residents. Every single U.S. metro area saw immigration slow — with large urban counties and border regions hit hardest.
The Numbers
Every state, the District of Columbia, and 90 percent of the nation's 3,144 counties experienced a decline in net international migration (NIM) between 2024 and 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 population estimates released March 26, 2026. The remaining 10 percent of counties — all small — saw no change.
The numeric scale of the drop is significant. California had the largest state-level decline, with net international migration falling from 312,761 in 2024 to 109,278 in 2025 — a drop of 203,843 people, according to Census Bureau data. At the county level, the net international migration decline ranged from as little as one person in 169 small counties to as many as 62,934 people in Los Angeles County alone, the Census Bureau reported.
Overall, Los Angeles County — the nation's most populous at approximately 9.7 million residents — lost nearly 54,000 people from 2024 to 2025, a decline of roughly 0.6 percent, according to the Axios analysis of Census Bureau data. The Los Angeles metro area including Orange County lost more than 62,000 people in total, according to KTLA's analysis of the same data.
The U.S. overall still grew by 0.5 percent between 2024 and 2025, according to Axios. But in approximately 75 percent of all counties, overall population growth — incorporating immigration, domestic migration, births, and deaths — either slowed or turned negative, according to The New York Times' analysis of Census Bureau data.
Every Metro Area Affected
The Census Bureau data shows no metropolitan area in the United States was spared. In the Laredo metro area, on the Texas border, immigration screeched to a virtual standstill. El Centro, California — a historically high-flow desert border crossing — lost more people to other countries than it gained, according to The New York Times. In Denver and its suburbs, the net immigration rate fell by almost three-quarters. In the Chicago metropolitan area, it was cut by nearly two-thirds.
Large urban counties and border counties, which had experienced a surge in new arrivals in recent years, were among the hardest-hit parts of the country, according to Census Bureau data. Miami-Dade County also saw population decline, per The Hill's analysis.
What's Driving the Drop
The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates incorporated updated methodology, including new data from the Department of Justice's Executive Office of Immigration Review to more accurately place humanitarian migrants by location. The bureau also adjusted emigration levels based on administrative data showing emigration from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, increased relative to recent years.
The decline in net international migration coincides with the Trump administration's immigration enforcement crackdown beginning in early 2025. Border crossings have fallen sharply, asylum processing has been curtailed, and deportation programs have expanded. The Census Bureau data does not attribute causation but documents the demographic outcome of these shifts.
California had previously offset domestic out-migration — which has been negative for several consecutive years — with international immigration inflows. In the period covered by Vintage 2025, that buffer collapsed. California experienced domestic out-migration of nearly 230,000 people while international migration fell by more than 200,000, per Census Bureau data from January 2026. The net result was the state was no longer able to compensate for domestic departures with new arrivals from abroad.
Where People Are Going
The demographic shift is not uniformly negative across the country. Florida was the state with the largest net international migration total in 2025, with 178,674 more people arriving from abroad than leaving, according to Census Bureau data. Texas and New Jersey also remained in the top five for net migration inflows.
The five states with the highest NIM totals in 2025 — Florida, Texas, California, New York, and New Jersey — together accounted for about 47.9 percent of all U.S. net international migration, per Census Bureau data. The 10 counties with the largest NIM estimates in 2025 made up about 24.5 percent of the national total. Harris County (Texas) and Miami-Dade County (Florida) ranked first and second for net international migration at the county level, with Los Angeles County third, per Census Bureau data.
Context: What This Means for Cities
Population decline in large urban counties has compounding fiscal effects: tax bases shrink, housing demand may soften, and political representation tied to census counts can shift. Los Angeles, which has faced elevated costs and ongoing homelessness pressure, is now also contending with a net population outflow driven by a dramatic reduction in what had been a consistent source of demographic renewal.
The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates are the most comprehensive county-level population data available covering the year ending July 1, 2025. The bureau noted these estimates supersede prior vintages and incorporate improved methodology to better reflect recent changes in migration flows.