Intelligence Contradicts Trump's Iran War Claims: Only a Third of Missiles Confirmed Destroyed

The Intelligence Assessment

U.S. intelligence can only determine with certainty that American and Israeli strikes have destroyed roughly one-third of Iran's missile arsenal since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, according to a Reuters exclusive published March 27 and based on five people familiar with the intelligence.

The assessment adds a second tier of uncertainty: another approximate third of Iran's missiles are believed to have been damaged, destroyed, or buried deep in underground tunnels and bunkers — but the status of those weapons cannot be confirmed. The remaining portion of Iran's missile inventory is assessed as still intact and potentially operational.

A similar breakdown applies to Iran's drone capability, according to one of the Reuters sources.

The assessment stands in direct tension with statements made by President Trump and senior Pentagon officials in the days preceding the report's publication.

What Trump and the Pentagon Said

At a televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday, March 26, Trump stated that Iran had "very few rockets left." He also claimed the war had been won and would end soon — characterizations he has made repeatedly over several weeks, including on March 24 when he told reporters, "We've won this. This war has been won," according to NPR.

A Pentagon official, responding to Reuters' inquiry, stated that Iranian missile and drone attacks were down approximately 90 percent since the start of hostilities, and that U.S. Central Command had "damaged or destroyed over 66% of Iranian missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards." Central Command has not published a precise figure on the percentage of Iran's actual missile stockpile that has been destroyed — a distinction the Reuters reporting highlights.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, in remarks on March 19, acknowledged the challenge posed by Iran's extensive tunnel network. "Iran is a vast country. And just like Hamas and their tunnels (in Gaza), they've poured any aid, any economic development, humanitarian aid, into tunnels and rockets," Hegseth said, adding that the U.S. military would continue hunting them "methodically, ruthlessly and overwhelmingly."

The Tunnel Problem

Central to the intelligence gap is Iran's network of underground military facilities. One senior U.S. official told Reuters: "I don't know if we'll ever have an accurate number." The official cited the difficulty in determining how many missiles were stored underground and whether tunnels struck from the air had collapsed — or remained accessible to Iranian forces.

Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iran's missile forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at Sciences Po university in Paris, told Reuters that the Trump administration may have overstated the degree to which U.S. strikes had degraded Iranian capabilities. Grajewski pointed to Iran continuing to launch strikes from Bid Kaneh military facility despite it being heavily bombed. "The fact that they've managed to sustain this, I think, indicates the U.S. was overstating the success of its operation," she said. She assessed Iran as retaining approximately 30 percent of its missile capabilities.

Grajewski said Iran had more than a dozen large underground facilities capable of sheltering launchers and missiles. "The big question is: have these facilities collapsed?" she said.

Iran Is Still Firing

The intelligence assessment is corroborated by Iran's continued operational capacity. On Thursday, March 27 alone, Iran fired 15 ballistic missiles and 11 drones at the United Arab Emirates, according to the UAE's Defense Ministry. The UAE defense ministry separately confirmed that its air defenses intercepted six ballistic missiles and nine unmanned aerial vehicles that day.

Since the war began on February 28, UAE air defenses have intercepted 378 ballistic missiles in total, according to Wikipedia's running tally of the 2026 Iranian strikes on the United Arab Emirates, which cites UAE Defense Ministry figures.

Iran also demonstrated expanded range in the conflict's third week, firing long-range missiles targeting the U.S.-UK military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean — a capability not previously deployed in this conflict.

Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who served four tours in Iraq, told Reuters he had not seen the specific intelligence figures but offered his own read on Iranian strategy: "If Iran is smart they've retained some of their capability — they're not using everything that they have. And they're laying in wait."

Israeli Assessment

Israeli military officials have provided a somewhat different set of statistics. They say Iran possessed approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel before the war began. Israeli forces say they have "neutralized" 335 missile launchers, representing 70 percent of Iran's launch capacity — a metric focused on delivery systems rather than warhead stockpiles.

Israeli officials privately acknowledge that eliminating what they estimate to be the remaining 30 percent of Iran's launch capacity will be "relatively more difficult to achieve," according to Reuters, because those assets are better hidden or dispersed.

Escalation Considerations

The Reuters report was published as the Trump administration is reportedly weighing a significant escalation: deploying U.S. ground troops to Iranian shores along the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran closed at the start of the conflict. Reuters previously reported that thousands of additional ground troops have already been ordered to deploy to the Middle East in preparation for multiple scenarios, including a ground operation near Kharg Island aimed at forcing the strait's reopening.

Trump acknowledged the operational stakes of Iran's remaining missiles during his Cabinet meeting: "The problem with the straits is this: let's say we do a great job. We say we got 99% [of their missiles]. 1% is unacceptable, because 1% is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars."

U.S. gas prices have risen approximately 30 percent in some areas since the conflict began, according to reporting by The Daily Beast, generating political backlash that threatens Republican prospects in midterm elections. Trump is reportedly eager to end the conflict in the coming weeks, despite its stated military objectives remaining incomplete.

Iran's Diplomatic Position

Iran is reportedly refusing to engage with Trump's chosen emissaries — real estate developer Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — over concerns that any negotiations would not be in good faith and would serve as a pretext for further strikes, according to The Daily Beast. The regime reportedly prefers to engage with Vice President JD Vance, who has been more publicly cautious about U.S. foreign military intervention.

Iran has denied that any negotiations are occurring. When Trump claimed on March 24 that Iran had made a "valuable offer" in talks, Iranian officials publicly contradicted the statement, saying no such discussions were taking place.