Ukraine Is Fighting the Iran War Too: Drones on Russian Oil, Gulf Deals, and an Energy Ceasefire Offer

How the Iran War Rescued — Then Complicated — Russia's Economy

Before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began February 28, Russia's oil and gas revenues had collapsed by approximately 50%, and the Kremlin was drawing down reserves to cover widening budget deficits as the war in Ukraine entered its fifth year, according to Fortune. The Iranian war changed that picture rapidly: when the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and approximately 20% of the world's oil supply was cut off, Russian crude — previously trading at a steep discount to global benchmarks — surged toward parity with Brent crude, according to Fortune.

The Trump administration also temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian crude in the wake of the Iran crisis, despite warnings from analysts that the move would provide a vital revenue influx to Moscow, according to Fortune. Usha Haley, an international business professor at Wichita State University, told Fortune that Russia was "the single biggest winners in the near term" from the Iran conflict, saying it "has actually rescued Russia's oil revenues from decline and a decline over a very long period."

Kyiv understood this dynamic — and moved to neutralize it.

Ukraine's Counterstrike: 40% of Russian Export Capacity Halted

As Russian oil prices soared, Ukraine launched a sustained campaign of long-range drone strikes on Russia's oil export infrastructure — specifically targeting the Baltic Sea terminals that handle the bulk of Russia's seaborne crude exports to Europe and Asia.

The main targets were the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Bloomberg analysis of shipment data showed that Primorsk and Ust-Luga previously handled approximately 45% of Russia's seaborne crude exports, according to Fortune. The Ust-Luga oil terminal was struck in what the Moscow Times described as Ukraine's largest overnight drone attack of 2026, as of the attack on March 25, 2026.

By March 25, Reuters calculations based on market data showed that at least 40% of Russia's crude oil export capacity was halted — the result of Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed pipeline attack, and the seizure of tankers. Reuters described this as "the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia," according to multiple outlets citing the Reuters analysis, including RFERL and the Moscow Times. Fresh drone attacks on Ust-Luga occurred on Sunday March 29, according to Reuters.

President Zelensky confirmed the strategic rationale directly. On March 26, he told Reuters that Ukraine was using long-range strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure to maintain pressure after international oil sanctions on Moscow were eased in the wake of the Iran war. Zelensky also said that Ukraine's attacks were in response to Russian strikes on Ukraine's own power infrastructure, which left more than a million people without electricity and heating over winter, according to BBC News.

Zelensky separately accused Russia's intelligence services of aiding Iran's targeting, claiming that Moscow was "passing on relevant information regarding attacks" on allied bases in the region by sharing satellite imagery, according to CNN's March 28 report. This assertion was not independently confirmed by other sources available as of March 30, 2026.

The Gulf Tour: Diesel Deals and 10-Year Defense Agreements

While striking Russian oil, Zelensky simultaneously pursued a strategic opening with the Gulf states that are most directly suffering from the Iran war. He made unannounced visits to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar over the weekend of March 28–29, according to the Los Angeles Times and Reuters.

The visits produced concrete agreements. Ukraine signed 10-year security cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and expected to finalize a similar agreement with the UAE shortly, according to Zelensky, as reported by the Los Angeles Times and Kyiv Post. The agreements reportedly involved Ukraine offering drone technology and defense expertise — potentially useful to Gulf states being struck by Iranian drones and missiles — in exchange for political support and energy supplies.

Ukraine secured a deal on diesel deliveries for more than one year, according to Reuters and the Jefferson City News-Tribune. Zelensky confirmed the diesel deal without specifying the supplier country or volume, saying only that Ukraine needed "long-term agreements with energy countries." Diesel is critical for the Ukrainian military's vehicles and equipment, as well as for the country's agricultural sector, according to Reuters.

Zelensky also told Gulf leaders that Ukraine, which successfully broke Russia's attempts to blockade grain exports through the Black Sea in 2023, had "useful experience of unblocking trade routes when it came to the Strait of Hormuz," according to BBC News — offering Ukraine's naval drone expertise as potentially applicable to Hormuz interdiction challenges.

The New York Times reported that Zelensky did not announce specific commercial drone sales but said talks touched on financial support from Gulf nations that could help Ukraine bridge a delay in European funding after Hungary blocked a 90 billion euro loan package.

The Energy Ceasefire Offer

On March 30, Zelensky disclosed that some of Ukraine's allies had sent Kyiv "signals" requesting a reduction in Ukraine's strikes on Russia's oil and energy sector, citing the impact on global energy prices already inflated by the Iran war. In a WhatsApp briefing with journalists, Zelensky stated: "Recently, following such a severe global energy crisis, we have indeed received signals from some of our partners about how to reduce our responses in the oil sector and the energy sector of the Russian Federation," according to Reuters.

Zelensky did not identify which partners sent those signals. BBC News noted that China and India — which imported approximately 85% of Russia's crude oil exports in February, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air — remain heavily dependent on Russian crude, and the EU is the largest buyer of Russian gas at 34% of imports and Russian LNG at 49%, according to BBC News. Any of these actors would have economic reasons to want Ukrainian strikes on Russian export infrastructure to stop.

Zelensky made Ukraine's position conditional: he said Ukraine was ready to reciprocate if Russia halts its attacks on Ukraine's energy system. He told BBC News directly: "If Russia is ready not to strike Ukraine's energy, then we'll respond by not attacking theirs." He also said Ukraine was open to an Easter ceasefire — "both full and energy-related" — according to Sky News.

Russia had not publicly responded to the energy ceasefire offer as of March 30, 2026.

Why It Matters: Two Wars, One Energy Market

The Iran war and the Ukraine war have become economically entangled in ways that neither side fully anticipated. Russia's oil windfalls from the Iran conflict gave Kyiv a direct financial incentive to strike Russian energy — and the drone strikes partially neutralized the windfall. But those same strikes tighten a global energy market already under severe strain from the Hormuz closure, potentially inflating the oil prices that fund Iran's ability to continue fighting.

Ukraine's Gulf diplomacy reflects a new geopolitical reality: the Gulf states that were previously uninvolved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are now among Ukraine's most strategically relevant potential partners, both as energy suppliers and as buyers of Ukrainian defense technology. The 10-year security frameworks signed with Saudi Arabia and Qatar represent a significant expansion of Ukraine's diplomatic footprint.

The energy ceasefire offer also introduces a new variable into the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If accepted, it would remove one of Ukraine's most effective pressure tools against Russian war financing at a time when European support is contested. If rejected by Russia, it allows Ukraine to continue strikes while positioning itself diplomatically as the party willing to negotiate on energy. As of March 30, no ceasefire of any kind — energy or otherwise — had been agreed between Russia and Ukraine.